Bitcoin’s attempt to climb back above $60,000 is running into a wall of sellers — specifically, the roughly 495,000 BTC that were bought near the cycle highs and are now sitting at break-even or underwater. Glassnode lead researcher CryptoVizArt said this week that for the market to sustain a recovery, that supply pile has to gradually shift into cheaper hands, either through a deeper price drop or a prolonged bear stretch. Bitcoin briefly touched $59,000 last week before bouncing to around $63,200 at the time of writing.
The $80,000–$126,000 Overhang
On-chain data from the Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution reveals a dense supply cluster in the $80,000–$126,000 range — coins accumulated as Bitcoin consolidated in that band from February 2025 onward. Nearly half a million BTC sits exactly at break-even, meaning any move above those levels faces immediate selling pressure from holders looking to exit flat. The cluster represents roughly the same cohort that drove the May recovery rally, but that same rally fizzled out as prices approached the lower edge of the zone.
What the Analyst Sees
CryptoVizArt framed the problem bluntly: the supply overhang won’t disappear on its own. For a sustained recovery, those coins need to migrate into new buyers with lower cost bases — a process he says can happen through “a deeper correction and/or bear market continuation.” In plain terms, either Bitcoin falls more to shake out weak hands, or the market spends an extended period below $80,000, slowly rotating supply. Neither scenario points to a quick V-shaped bounce.
May’s Ceiling Makes Sense Now
The May rally from the mid-$50,000s stalled around $72,000 before reversing — right at the bottom of the supply cluster. The resistance from underwater investors likely capped that move. With the price now back near $63,000, the market is again testing whether it can push into the cluster without triggering a wave of selling. So far, the data suggests it can’t.
What Could Break the Stalemate
The next concrete signal to watch is whether Bitcoin can hold above $59,000 — last week’s low — or if it breaks lower. A drop would accelerate the supply migration that CryptoVizArt described, potentially setting up a healthier base. But if the price chops sideways, the overhang stays in place and any rally gets sold into. No quarterly expiration or event is looming to force a resolution; it’s raw supply-demand mechanics playing out on the order book.
