XRP slipped 2.9% over the past 24 hours to trade near $1.06, as traders brace for the Federal Reserve's July policy decision later today. Forced liquidations erased $9.51 million in XRP positions, while spot volume lagged far behind futures turnover — a sign of speculative positioning rather than organic buying.
Fed decision in focus
The Federal Reserve's July meeting wraps up today, with the policy statement due at 2 p.m. ET and a press conference half an hour later. Markets were pricing about a 65% chance the Fed would hold rates steady. That uncertainty has kept broader crypto markets on edge. Bitcoin rallied to a local high near $66,700 earlier this week, then retreated toward $64,000, partially recovered to about $65,100, and later slipped to about $63,700. Glassnode's July 27 Market Pulse flagged softer speculative conviction, declining buy-side aggression, ETF outflows, stagnant capital inflows, and muted on-chain settlement. Options traders are still pricing more future uncertainty.
Leverage and liquidations
XRP open interest sits at $2.43 billion, with 24-hour futures volume of $2.47 billion and spot volume of just $361 million. That means futures turnover is 6.85 times spot turnover — a ratio that often signals heavy leverage. A 10% flush of XRP open interest ($243 million) would be about 67% of daily spot volume; a 15% flush ($365 million) would exceed it. The $9.51 million in forced liquidations over the past day is a relatively modest number, but the structure suggests a bigger unwind could hit if spot buyers don't step in.
Key support and resistance
XRP sits just above its intraday low near $1.05, about 5-6% above the $1 psychological floor. Immediate support is at $1.05; a break below that opens the door to a test of $1.00. On the upside, the first recovery threshold is $1.09, with a confirmation zone between $1.11 and $1.15. The bear case: Bitcoin fails to regain the $64,000-$65,100 zone and slides toward $62,700, dragging XRP below $1.05 toward $1.00. The bull case: Bitcoin reclaims $65,100 and retests $66,700 after the Fed decision, and XRP reclaims $1.09, pushing into the $1.11-$1.15 zone. The beta between Bitcoin and the broader altcoin complex climbed to 1.45 during a recent market contraction, per Bitwise and Glassnode, meaning altcoins move more than Bitcoin in the same direction. Academic research using high-frequency data from 2026 also found lagged price transmission from Bitcoin into altcoins — so XRP's fate is tightly tied to BTC's next move.
The Fed's decision at 2 p.m. ET is the next concrete catalyst. Whether the market gets a dovish hold or a hawkish surprise will determine if XRP can hold $1.05 or slides toward the psychological $1 line.
