The Tom Demark Sequential indicator has triggered a buy signal on XRP's four-hour chart, raising the possibility of a short-term bounce for the cryptocurrency that has been trading in a tight range near $1.33. The signal comes as a key valuation metric, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, dropped into deeply negative territory — the lowest level since December 2020.
What the Sequential Signal Says
The TD Sequential indicator, a popular tool among traders for spotting trend reversals, flashed the buy signal as XRP continues to consolidate. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed to the signal and predicted a move up toward $1.35 before the broader trend resumes. That target sits just above the current price, suggesting a modest but potentially meaningful short-term gain.
XRP has been stuck in a range, failing to break decisively higher or lower. The TD Sequential pattern often marks a temporary shift in momentum, though it doesn't guarantee a sustained rally. Traders watching the four-hour chart will be looking for confirmation in the next few candles.
The MVRV Ratio in Extreme Territory
More striking than the technical signal is the state of the MVRV ratio — a measure that compares an asset's market price to the average price at which all coins were last moved. For XRP, the 30-day MVRV has fallen into deep negative territory, meaning the average buyer over the past month is sitting on an unrealized loss of more than 47%.
That level hasn't been seen since December 2020, just before a major rally took XRP from under $0.20 to nearly $2.00. Data provider Santiment noted that the MVRV ratio typically reverts to 0% over time, which implies the current reading marks an extreme undervalued zone. When the metric gets this low, it has historically preceded price recoveries — though past performance is never a guarantee.
The combination of a buy signal on the four-hour chart and a historically low MVRV ratio gives traders some reason to watch XRP closely over the next few days. The key question is whether buyers will step in to push the price above the $1.35 resistance level Martinez highlighted. A break above that could open the door to a more sustained move. If the price fails to hold current support, the deeply negative MVRV may simply reflect continued bearish sentiment rather than a buying opportunity.
For now, the market waits to see if the TD Sequential signal and the extreme MVRV reading will line up — or if XRP remains stuck in consolidation a while longer.
