XRP closed July with a gain of roughly 6.83% — its strongest month on record — but the token still trades near $1.09, about 72% below its all-time high. Monthly RSI readings are more oversold than during the March 2020 COVID crash, according to analyst Ash Crypto, yet institutional demand via spot ETFs has been nearly absent. Skeptics argue that oversold readings alone can't confirm a genuine cycle bottom.
Technical picture: Gaussian channel and thin volume
Analyst ChartNerdTA noted that XRP is interacting with the middle regression band of its Gaussian channel near $0.88, a zone that preceded extended accumulation ranges in the past. Open interest fell while prices climbed, indicating short positions being closed or liquidated, according to analyst CW. Thin selling volume at current levels suggests limited conviction among sellers, but the lack of buying pressure keeps the rally fragile.
Institutional appetite stays muted
Spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows on 11 of 17 trading days in July, per SoSoValue data. Exchange outflows have slowed considerably, suggesting reduced accumulation momentum. The combination of weak ETF demand and slowing outflows points to a market that isn't yet attracting fresh capital, even as technical indicators flash oversold.
August historically flat, skepticism lingers
August historically is the flattest month for XRP, averaging returns of just 0.43%. That seasonal headwind comes as analysts caution that oversold readings alone don't confirm a bottom. Macro conditions, regulatory developments around Ripple, and real buying pressure are needed for a sustained recovery, skeptics argue.
Key levels to watch
A decisive three-day close above $1.22 would signal breakout potential. Losing $1.01 would open the door to further weakness. With XRP's market cap near $68 billion and daily trading volume exceeding $1.2 billion, the next few weeks will test whether July's gain was a genuine reversal or just a dead-cat bounce.
