Senators Urge CFTC to Halt Wildfire Betting as Polymarket Wagering Surpasses $1.2M

The case against disaster betting

Sagen mod væddemål på katastrofer

The senators' letter contends that allowing financial speculation on wildfires creates a dangerous incentive structure. A US Forest Service spokesperson stated that systems tying financial gain to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including arson. The concern isn't hypothetical: prosecutors have charged a 29-year-old man with starting the Palisades Fire, which killed 31 people and destroyed 16,246 buildings. He faces up to 45 years and has pleaded not guilty.

Senatorernes brev hævder, at det at tillade finansiel spekulation i skovbrande skaber en farlig incitamentsstruktur. En talsperson for US Forest Service udtalte, at systemer, der knytter økonomisk gevinst til skovbrandes udfald, risikerer at tilskynde til misbrug, herunder brandstiftelse. Bekymringen er ikke hypotetisk: anklagere har tiltalt en 29-årig mand for at have startet Palisades-branden, som dræbte 31 mennesker og ødelagde 16.246 bygninger. Han risikerer op til 45 år og har nægtet sig skyldig.

History shows that weather betting can lead to fraud. In 1950, St. Louis police shut down a weather betting ring worth $2.6 million a year that involved bribing officials to fake temperature records. More recently, in April 2026, a Polymarket trader bet $119 on Paris weather and won $21,398 after a sensor at Charles de Gaulle Airport spiked. Météo-France called in police over that incident.

Historien viser, at væddemål på vejr kan føre til svindel. I 1950 lukkede politiet i St. Louis en væddemålsring på vejr til en værdi af 2,6 millioner dollars om året, som involverede bestikkelse af embedsmænd for at forfalske temperaturregistreringer. Mere for nylig, i april 2026, satsede en Polymarket-handler 119 dollars på Paris' vejr og vandt 21.398 dollars, efter at en sensor i Charles de Gaulle-lufthavnen spidsede. Météo-France tilkaldte politiet i den forbindelse.

Polymarket's wildfire markets

Polymarkets skovbrandsmarkeder

Polymarket opened its first wildfire bet on January 8, 2025 — one day after the Palisades and Eaton fires started. One bet on the Palisades Fire containment date took $711,587, with the largest pool ($274,797) betting on the latest date. That implied traders expected slow containment. The bet was settled using data from fire.ca.gov (CAL FIRE), which refuses to take anything back from these markets.

Polymarket åbnede sit første skovbrandsvæddemål den 8. januar 2025 – en dag efter, at Palisades- og Eaton-brandene startede. Et væddemål på datoen for inddæmning af Palisades-branden tog 711.587 dollars, hvor den største pulje (274.797 dollars) satsede på den seneste dato. Det antydede, at handlende forventede langsom inddæmning. Væddemålet blev afgjort ved hjælp af data fra fire.ca.gov (CAL FIRE), som nægter at tage noget tilbage fra disse markeder.

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan defended the wildfire markets, saying they carry the least risk and give the most information. The platform added an on-chain detection system in May, but the senators argue that's not enough.

Polymarkets grundlægger Shayne Coplan forsvarede skovbrandsmarkederne og sagde, at de bærer den mindste risiko og giver mest information. Platformen tilføjede et on-chain-detektionssystem i maj, men senatorerne argumenterer for, at det ikke er nok.

Regulatory gaps and next steps

Regulatoriske huller og næste skridt

The CFTC proposed a new rule on June 10 that checks each contract for terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, and illegal activity. Comments closed July 27, but wildfire was not included in the rule. The senators' letter explicitly asks the CFTC to treat disaster betting as a form of gaming or illegal activity under the Commodity Exchange Act.

CFTC foreslog en ny regel den 10. juni, som kontrollerer hver kontrakt for terrorisme, attentat, krig, spil og ulovlig aktivitet. Kommentarer lukkede den 27. juli, men skovbrande var ikke inkluderet i reglen. Senatorernes brev beder eksplicit CFTC om at behandle væddemål på katastrofer som en form for spil eller ulovlig aktivitet under Commodity Exchange Act.

Meanwhile, Wyldfyre — a play-money site for California fire risk — went offline last month. The senators want the CFTC to act before real-money disaster markets become entrenched. The agency has not yet responded to the letter.

I mellemtiden er Wyldfyre – en side med legepenge for brandrisiko i Californien – gået offline i sidste måned. Senatorerne ønsker, at CFTC handler, før markeder med rigtige penge for katastrofer bliver etableret. Agenturet har endnu ikke svaret på brevet.