Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is recovering after weeks of disruption, but betting markets suggest the waterway might not return to normal by late June. The shift comes as US Central Command officials describe a move toward advisory support for commercial ships rather than direct escort missions.
What the betting odds show
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, currently pegs the probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by the end of June at well below 50%. The odds reflect persistent uncertainty about the security situation in the narrow chokepoint, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes. While no formal escort missions have been reported, the market's skepticism indicates that traders and analysts see a prolonged period of caution ahead.
US military shift in posture
US Central Command officials have described a change in approach: instead of running active escort operations for every commercial vessel, the military is leaning toward advisory support. That means providing intelligence, coordination, and perhaps some naval assets on standby, but not directly shepherding ships through the strait. The shift is a response to both the improving traffic numbers and a desire to avoid a long-term military commitment in the region.
Current traffic situation
Despite the lack of escorts, vessel movement through the strait has picked up. The rebound suggests that ship operators and insurers are gradually regaining confidence, though the betting markets indicate that full normalization — the point where traffic flows without any special security measures — is still a distant prospect. No official timeline has been given for when or if the advisory support model will be replaced by routine commercial operations.
For now, the question remains: will the strait be free of exceptional security measures by July, or will the market's odds prove right?
