President Donald Trump has approved a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that permits the kingdom to enrich uranium. The decision marks a significant shift in US policy toward the Middle East. Separately, the probability of a US-Iran deal that includes reconstruction funding by 2026 stands at 30.5%, according to current estimates.
A sensitive capability
Uranium enrichment has long been a red line for nonproliferation advocates. The ability to enrich uranium brings a country closer to potential weapons capability, even if its stated intent is civilian energy. Saudi Arabia has insisted it wants nuclear power for peaceful purposes, but the enrichment provision has drawn criticism from those who fear a regional arms race. The US has historically refused to allow enrichment in civilian nuclear deals, making this approval a break with precedent.
The 30.5% chance for Iran
The figure for Iranian reconstruction funding comes from a prediction market that tracks the likelihood of a US-Iran deal. At 30.5%, the odds are low but not zero. The deal would provide funding for reconstruction in Iran, likely in exchange for limits on its nuclear program. The Trump administration has pursued a dual track of pressure and negotiation with Tehran. The probability reflects ongoing uncertainty about whether the two sides can reach an agreement by 2026.
What the Saudi deal includes
The agreement allows Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically, a right that the US has previously denied to other countries in similar civilian nuclear deals. The terms of the deal have not been fully disclosed, but the enrichment provision is the most contentious element. Critics argue it could undermine the global nonproliferation regime. The deal is structured as a 123 agreement under the Atomic Energy Act, which requires congressional review.
Next steps
The Saudi deal now moves to Congress, which has 90 days to review it. Lawmakers may attempt to block or modify the agreement. The Iran deal probability will be updated as negotiations progress. Both issues are likely to remain central to US foreign policy in the coming months. The administration has not commented on how the Saudi approval might affect talks with Iran.
