The United States has carried out its eighth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, according to U.S. Central Command. The operation, now in its second week, marks an extended campaign that shows no sign of pausing. Meanwhile, a prediction market tracking the likelihood of International Atomic Energy Agency inspections at Iranian nuclear sites by December 31 puts the probability at just 27.5%.
Eighth consecutive night of strikes
Centcom confirmed the latest round of strikes early Thursday, but did not provide details on targets or the scope of the operation. The strikes have been conducted nightly since the campaign began, making this the longest sustained U.S. military action against Iran in recent memory. No casualty figures or damage assessments have been released.
The White House has not commented on the duration of the campaign or its endgame. Iran’s government has condemned the strikes as aggression but has not announced any military retaliation. Regional observers note that the strikes are concentrated on what the U.S. describes as Iranian-linked facilities, though specifics remain classified.
IAEA visit probability low
On the diplomatic front, a prediction market — a tool that aggregates bets on future events — shows a 27.5% chance that IAEA inspectors will visit Iranian nuclear sites before the end of the year. The market, which has been running for several weeks, initially gave higher odds but they have declined as the U.S. strikes continued.
The IAEA has long sought access to certain undeclared sites in Iran where traces of nuclear material were found. Iran has resisted, and the agency’s board of governors has passed resolutions urging compliance. The 27.5% figure suggests traders see a visit as unlikely but not impossible before the deadline.
It is unclear whether the ongoing U.S. strikes are directly linked to the IAEA’s access negotiations. Iran has previously used military pressure as a reason to delay cooperation, but the agency has not publicly changed its stance.
What happens next
The strikes are expected to continue into a ninth night unless the U.S. announces a halt. The IAEA’s deadline for a visit is December 31. If no inspection occurs by then, the agency may refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, escalating the diplomatic standoff. For now, the two tracks — military and diplomatic — run in parallel, with no clear resolution in sight.
