The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29, a 9-3 vote that saw three officials push for a quarter-point hike. Bitcoin jumped 5.3% to near $68,245 after the decision, while the central bank's next test comes September 15-16.
Three votes for a hike
Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan each voted for a 25-basis-point increase, citing risks from the Middle East conflict and past tariffs. The majority held steady, keeping the target range unchanged for now. The split is the widest in months, and it signals growing unease inside the Fed about inflation that's still running above target.
Warsh's leaner calendar
Chairman Kevin Warsh floated the idea of cutting the Fed's meeting schedule to six times a year, down from the current eight. He's already shortened post-meeting statements and stopped hinting at future moves. That's a communication shift that could give the Fed more flexibility — or less, depending on how you read it.
Inflation still runs hot
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge ran at 3.7% in June, well above the 2% goal. The July hold pushed long-term yields to their highest since 2007, and 5% Treasury yields have been pulling money away from risk assets like Bitcoin. That's part of why Bitcoin has lagged gold this year.
September looms
Traders entered July pricing a one-in-three chance of a hike, and a full quarter-point move was priced in by September. The next meeting on September 15-16 will show whether the dissenters gain ground or the majority holds its line. Nearly all members stuck to their pledge to "deliver price stability," but the path there is getting harder to agree on.
