US airstrikes against Iran have entered their eighth consecutive night, following the killing of American service members in Jordan. The ongoing military campaign targets Iran-linked groups in the region. Meanwhile, a prediction market has placed a 10.5% probability on the Iranian regime falling by the end of 2026.
Why the strikes continue
The strikes began after a drone attack on a US base in Jordan killed three American service members. Washington blamed Iran-backed militias and launched retaliatory airstrikes. The eighth night of strikes shows the US is not backing down, despite calls for restraint from some allies.
The prediction market figure
A prediction market, where traders bet on geopolitical outcomes, currently shows a 10.5% chance that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. The odds reflect a low but not negligible probability of regime change, driven by internal unrest and external pressure. The market has seen slight fluctuations since the airstrikes began, but the probability remains in the single digits.
The figure is based on trading activity and is not a formal forecast. Prediction markets have been used to gauge sentiment on geopolitical events, though their accuracy varies.
What comes next
The US has not announced a timeline for ending the airstrikes. The White House has said the campaign will continue as long as necessary to deter further attacks. Iran has threatened retaliation, raising the risk of a broader conflict. The eighth night of strikes shows no sign of a pause, and the prediction market's 10.5% probability of regime change remains a distant but watched number.
