Avalanche's native token AVAX is trading at $6.27, down as the market continues to absorb a $23.3 million token unlock. All major moving averages sit above the current price, acting as overhead resistance. The overall bias is lower before higher, with traders eyeing a potential flush to $5.94 before any recovery takes hold.
Resistance from Overhead Moving Averages
Every key moving average — the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — is now above AVAX's spot price. That configuration typically signals that sellers remain in control and that any bounce will face stiff resistance at those levels. Without a catalyst to push the price through those averages, the path of least resistance is down.
Expected Flush to $5.94 Before Recovery
Market participants expect the price to drop to $5.94 before finding a floor. That level represents a zone where buyers may step in more aggressively. The forecast is not a guarantee, but it reflects the current technical setup and the lingering supply overhang from the unlock. Once the flush completes, a recovery could begin — but not before.
Market Absorbing Unlock Supply
The $23.3 million token unlock is still being worked through. Such unlocks release previously locked tokens into circulation, often creating selling pressure as recipients take profits or cover costs. The market has not yet fully digested this supply, which helps explain the persistent downward bias. Until the unlock is fully absorbed, any upward moves are likely to be capped.
The question now is how quickly the flush to $5.94 will play out — and whether that level will hold as support.
