Bitcoin slid more than 5% over the past 24 hours, changing hands around $63,600 after falling from $71,000 this week. The decline accelerated as a 13-day streak of net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a wave of coins moving to exchanges piled on selling pressure. Several on-chain analysts now point to the $60,000 area — roughly the 4-year moving average — as a potential bottom, though some warn of a further drop to $58,000 or lower.
4-Year Moving Average as Floor
Adam Livingston highlights that Bitcoin is trading just 22.75% above its 4-year moving average of $60,000, a deviation that historically occurred on only 18.5% of valid trading days. In his analysis, buying BTC at that percentile relative to the 4-year MA turned a $10,000 lump sum into roughly $56,600 over a given window, compared with $40,200 from a daily dollar-cost-averaging strategy over the same period. Livingston views the $60,000 level as a historically strong support zone dating back to February of this year.
Analyst Predicts $58,000 Sweep
Crypto analyst Bluntz, known for his Elliott Wave work, expects Bitcoin to break below $60,000 and sweep liquidity around $58,000 based on daily close data. The move would retest the February 2026 low of $60,000 and likely trigger a cascade of stops before any meaningful bounce. Bluntz’s outlook echoes a broader bearish sentiment tied to the breakdown below $72,000 earlier this month.
On-Chain Signals Point to Selling Pressure
Ali Martinez reports that 54,000 BTC have been moved to exchanges over the past week, adding to short-term selling pressure and driving price deeper into the lower $60,000s. He notes that the breakdown below $72,000 left Bitcoin in a vulnerable position, with the next major support sitting between $54,000 and $50,000 according to MVRV pricing bands. That zone hasn't been tested since early 2025 and marks a significant gap in current price structure.
ETF Outflows Keep the Pressure On
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have not recorded a single net inflow day in nearly two weeks, a stretch that has sapped one of the main sources of demand that propped up BTC above $70,000. The persistent outflows remove a natural bid from the market and align with the broader move lower. The question now is whether the selling exhausts itself near $60,000 or forces a more serious retest of the lower support levels flagged by Martinez.
Bitcoin’s next major test comes as traders watch for a daily close below $63,000. If that level breaks, the February low of $60,000 becomes the immediate target — and a sweep through it could open the $58,000 zone Bluntz predicted.
