Bitcoin's realized cap has slid by $40.8 billion since January, a 3.63% drop to $1.08 trillion, as selling pressure from the largest holders intensifies. Over the past two weeks, wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC — so-called humpback whales — offloaded roughly 612,753 tokens, sending the price down more than 10% during that stretch alone. The moves have pushed Bitcoin below $74,000, a level not seen since early 2026.
Realized cap shrinks by $40.8 billion
The realized-cap metric, which values each coin at its last on-chain movement price, has fallen from about $1.12 trillion on January 19 to $1.08 trillion today. Over the same period, Bitcoin's spot price dropped more than 20%, from $92,593 to around $73,400. A decline in realized cap typically signals that capital is leaving the market — and in this case, the outflows have been consistent since mid-May.
Whales sold 612,753 BTC in 17 days
Between May 11 and May 28, wallets classified as humpback whales — those holding over 10,000 BTC — sold 612,753 bitcoin. That selling coincided with an acceleration in capital outflows starting May 14. During that same window, Bitcoin's price fell 10.72%, from $82,365 to $73,530. At the time of writing, the token is trading at $73,485, down 0.3% on the day and 2.43% in the past week.
Short-term outlook hinges on spot inflows
Analyst Carmelo Alemán said Bitcoin is likely to keep trending downward in the near term unless fresh spot inflows resume. “The downtrend is likely to persist,” he suggested, pointing to the lack of buying pressure from large holders or institutional channels. Without a catalyst to reverse the flow, the market may continue to absorb whale distributions at lower prices.
The question now is whether spot inflows will return — and how much more supply the humpback whales have left to sell.
