Bitcoin fell 1.44% on Tuesday to trade near $63,916, as a fresh round of outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising oil prices weighed on risk appetite. The $144.67 million in net outflows on Monday ended a five-day inflow streak, while CME FedWatch data shows the odds of a September rate hike climbing.
Oil and the Fed
Oil prices are climbing again after stalled US-Iran negotiations, and that's feeding inflation worries. The market is now pricing in a 51.3% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, up from 44.1% on Friday. Higher rates tend to pull money out of risk assets like Bitcoin, and the shift in expectations is showing up in the price action.
ETF outflows
Monday's $144.67 million in net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a five-day run of inflows. It's a quick reversal, and it suggests some investors are taking profits or trimming exposure as the macro picture gets murkier. The outflows aren't massive, but they're a clear signal that sentiment has turned cautious.
Technical picture
Bitcoin is now trading below its 50-day EMA at $64,625, the 100-day EMA at $66,795, and the 200-day EMA at $72,045. That's a bearish setup. The immediate support sits at $62,345, with the yearly low of $57,800 established on July 1 as the next major floor. The RSI is near 48, and the MACD line is marginally below zero, pointing to weak momentum.
On the upside, resistance is at $75,719, but that's a long way off. The next test is support at $62,345. A break below that could open the door to the yearly low. For now, the market is waiting to see if oil prices cool off and whether the Fed actually follows through on that rate hike.
