A cluster of nine accounts on the prediction market Polymarket generated $2.4 million from bets on major US military operations, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps. The accounts posted a 98% win rate, raising questions about how they consistently picked the timing and outcome of sensitive operations.
What the investigation found
Bubblemaps, a firm that analyzes on-chain data to trace token flows and wallet clusters, identified the group through patterns in transaction histories. The nine accounts moved funds between each other and shared common deposit and withdrawal addresses. Their bets focused on a handful of contracts tied to US military actions — though the specific operations were not named in the report.
The 98% win rate is far above what typical traders achieve on prediction markets, where even skilled participants rarely top 70%. The volume — $2.4 million — suggests the group had confidence, or maybe inside knowledge. Bubblemaps did not accuse anyone of wrongdoing, but the findings highlight how prediction markets can become vehicles for trading on non-public information.
Why the timing matters
Polymarket has grown rapidly over the past year, attracting users who bet on everything from election results to Federal Reserve rate decisions. Military operations are a newer category. The contracts allow users to wager on whether a specific event will occur by a certain date — for example, a missile strike or a troop movement. If someone knows the operation is coming, they can profit before the news breaks.
US law prohibits trading on material non-public information about government activities, but prediction markets operate in a gray area. Regulators have not yet set clear rules for these platforms. The Bubblemaps investigation shows the risks. Nine accounts acting together can move millions without triggering alarms on the platform itself.
What Polymarket says
Polymarket’s terms of service prohibit market manipulation and the use of inside information. The company has not commented publicly on the Bubblemaps report. It’s unclear whether the platform has its own detection tools or relies on outside firms like Bubblemaps to flag suspicious activity. No regulator has announced an inquiry.
The accounts remain active, according to blockchain data. That leaves an open question: will Polymarket freeze them, or will authorities step in? For now, the nine wallets keep trading — and the 98% win rate suggests they either have extraordinary luck or something else entirely.
