Ethereum slid to $1,983 on Thursday, sinking into oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index of 29. The move has traders bracing for a classic dead cat bounce — a short-lived relief rally to $2,200 resistance before a deeper drop toward $1,800 support within the next two weeks.
RSI at 29: What oversold means
An RSI reading below 30 is typically seen as a sign that an asset is oversold and due for a bounce. Ethereum hasn't been this low on the RSI since early March. The last time it hit similar levels, the price recovered about 8% over the following week before resuming its downtrend.
Trading volumes picked up on the sell-off, but buying pressure remains weak. The question now is whether any rally has legs — or if it's just a trap for late buyers.
The two-week outlook: dead cat bounce or real recovery?
The price action is being framed as a dead cat bounce — a term for a sharp but temporary rebound in a longer-term decline. The facts point to a bounce toward $2,200, where Ethereum would face selling pressure from traders who bought the previous breakdown. That level also aligns with the 50-day moving average, making it a natural rejection zone.
From there, the path of least resistance is lower. The target is $1,800, a level that has acted as both support and resistance several times over the past three months. A break below that could open the door to a full capitulation event.
What happens if $1,800 breaks
Capitulation — a final flush of panic selling — is the expected endpoint of this move. If Ethereum falls through $1,800, it would mark a new low for the year and likely trigger stop-losses and forced liquidations. That kind of washout often sets the stage for a more durable bottom, but it's a brutal process to get through.
For now, the clock is ticking. The two-week window means the relief rally could start as early as Friday or Monday. The key is whether that bounce convinces enough buyers to hold, or whether it's just another chance for sellers to unload at better prices.
