Ethereum's futures premium has edged into positive territory for the first time in over two years, according to the Binance Ethereum Futures Power 30D Change index. The metric, which tracks the 30-day change in futures open interest and funding rates, now reads 0.026 — still below the 0.0327 reading from October 24, 2023, which kicked off an early recovery phase before a sustained move higher.
Futures premium flips positive
The index turning positive means traders are incrementally more willing to hold long positions, a shift from the persistent bearish sentiment that dominated much of early 2026. But the current reading isn't screaming euphoria. It's roughly 20% below that October 2023 level, which itself came before a big rally — not after one. That's a nuance the market hasn't fully priced in yet.
Price action at a crossroads
Ethereum is testing the $2,400 resistance level after recovering from February lows below $1,800. Price sits above the 50-day moving average and is challenging the 100-day, both of which have flattened after months of decline. The 200-day moving average, however, remains above current price and is still sloping downward — a sign the broader trend hasn't flipped bullish yet.
Volume on this move isn't expanding aggressively, which raises questions about conviction. Multiple attempts to crack $2,400 have stalled, while dips toward $2,150–$2,200 keep getting bought. That pattern suggests a market that's indecisive but not panicking.
What history suggests
The index's extreme positive readings in March 2024, December 2024, and August 2025 were each followed by ETH pullbacks ranging from roughly 44% to 61%. The current reading of 0.026 is far from those extremes, so the historical warning doesn't directly apply yet. But the last time the index was at this level, in late 2023, the market was at the start of a multi-month grind higher — not in the middle of a breakout.
Next levels to watch
A confirmed breakout above $2,400 could open the path toward $2,700. A rejection would keep Ethereum range-bound, likely between $2,150 and $2,400. The next few trading sessions will show whether the futures premium gain is a signal of real demand or just a temporary reprieve from the bearish camp.
