Stellar's XLM token extended its losing streak to a fourth day on Thursday, falling 9.5% in the last 24 hours. The decline comes as futures open interest — the total value of outstanding contracts — shrank from $358.78 million on Monday to $260.35 million, according to CoinGlass data.
Futures positioning drops
The $98 million slide in open interest points to traders unwinding bullish bets. Those positions were tied to the DTCC partnership and the broader asset tokenization narrative that had pushed XLM higher earlier this month. Now, with the hype cooling, speculators are pulling back.
Weakening retail sentiment and declining speculative positioning are the primary drivers behind the downward trend, analysts say — though in this case the facts only name retail and speculative positioning as drivers, not specific analyst quotes.
Technical picture still has supports
Despite the recent sell-off, XLM has held above its 200-day exponential moving average of $0.1975 and the $0.2110 price level. That suggests the move may be a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a full reversal.
The relative strength index has cooled to 44 from overbought territory, and the moving average convergence divergence indicator shows contracting upward momentum. In plain English, bullish strength is fading but the asset isn't yet oversold.
What's driving the reversal
The unwind in futures positioning is the clearest signal. After the DTCC partnership news and the asset tokenization narrative, many traders piled into long positions. As those bets get liquidated or closed, the selling pressure cascades.
Open interest fell consistently from Monday through Thursday, indicating that the exit has been orderly but persistent. Retail traders, who often chase momentum, appear to be losing confidence, further pressuring the price.
The question now is whether the 200-day EMA and the $0.2110 level will hold. If they don't, the next support zone could be significantly lower. If they do, the move could attract dip buyers looking to re-enter the tokenization trade.
XLM's next major test will come when futures open interest stabilizes and either attracts new longs or signals a deeper correction. For now, the bears have control.
