TD Cowen estimates a 75% probability that the CLARITY Act will not become law this fall, putting the bill's chances of passage at just 25%. The firm's analysis identifies three scenarios that would end the legislation without a final vote, and the Senate's next test is set for September 15.
Why the Odds Are Low
The 75% failure probability reflects a difficult path through the Senate. TD Cowen's report outlines three distinct ways the bill could die before a final passage vote, though the specifics of those scenarios are not public. The firm's estimate suggests the legislation faces significant hurdles in the coming weeks.
The September 15 Test
The Senate is scheduled to take up the CLARITY Act on September 15. That date will serve as a key test of the bill's viability. If the measure fails to clear this step, the three scenarios outlined by TD Cowen could come into play, effectively ending its chances this fall.
What a 25% Chance Means
A 25% probability is not zero, but it's a long shot. The bill's future depends on the outcome of the September 15 test. The three scenarios are a reminder that legislative success is never guaranteed, even when a bill has momentum. The Senate's next test will be the first concrete measure of whether the CLARITY Act can beat the odds.
