Galaxy Research has cut its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to just 30%, down from a higher figure earlier this year. The revision came after lawmakers released the final text of the long-awaited crypto market structure bill. Unresolved disputes between key factions now threaten the bipartisan support needed to push it through both chambers.
The 30% estimate and what changed
Galaxy Research's new probability reflects a sobering reality check. The firm had previously been more optimistic, but the release of the final bill text exposed lingering disagreements. According to the research note, the lowered odds are a direct response to the political landscape after the text went public. The analysts did not specify the exact previous estimate, but the 30% figure signals that passage is far from certain.
Where the disputes are
The CLARITY Act aims to create a federal framework for digital asset regulation, splitting oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. But the final text left several issues unresolved. One major sticking point: how to define a security versus a commodity in the crypto space. Another is the treatment of decentralized protocols. Lawmakers from both parties have voiced concerns, but no formal amendments have been introduced yet. The unresolved disputes are the main reason Galaxy Research sees the odds slipping.
What's at stake for the industry
For crypto firms, the CLARITY Act is the most significant piece of legislation on the table. It would replace the current patchwork of state-by-state rules and enforcement actions with a single federal standard. Without it, companies face continued regulatory uncertainty. The 30% probability means the industry can't count on relief this year. Some firms have already started lobbying harder, but the clock is ticking — the legislative calendar is crowded with appropriations and election-year politics.
Next steps on Capitol Hill
The bill is currently in committee. A markup session has been tentatively scheduled for mid-August, but that date could slip if disputes aren't resolved. Galaxy Research noted that the next two weeks are critical: if lawmakers can't reach a compromise on the key sticking points, the bill may not get a floor vote before the November recess. The 30% estimate could drop further if negotiations stall.
