Meta AI, the tech giant's AI unit, predicts Bitcoin will end 2026 between $95,000 and $115,000, with a central estimate of $105,000. That's a roughly 66% recovery from the current price of $63,367. The forecast leans heavily on a piece of US legislation that would create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
The ARMA bill and the $105,000 target
The prediction is driven by the proposed ARMA bill, H.R. 8957, which would lock federal Bitcoin holdings for 20 years and authorize purchases of up to 200,000 BTC annually for five years — as much as 1 million BTC in total. If that becomes law, the US government becomes a massive, long-term buyer. Meta AI sees that as the catalyst to push prices toward six figures.
What could go wrong
It's not a one-way bet. If the ARMA bill stalls in Congress and treasury accumulation slows, Meta AI's model sees Bitcoin revisiting $52,000-$56,000. That's a 10-18% drop from current levels. The bill's fate is the single biggest swing factor in the forecast.
Miners and Metaplanet
Underneath the political drama, the network is holding up. Bitcoin's 7-day average hash rate hit roughly 724 EH/s in early July, a sign miners aren't packing up. On the corporate side, Japan's Metaplanet holds 18,991 BTC and plans to deploy $837 million from a new share issuance toward additional purchases in September and October. That's real demand coming down the pipe.
Technical picture
Bitcoin closed at $63,367, down 0.28%, after trading between $63,240 and $64,411. The RSI reads 45.25 against a signal line of 49.57 — momentum is tilted toward sellers but still above oversold territory. Reclaiming $68,000 would give buyers an opening toward the $72,000-$80,000 region, making the path to $105,000 technically credible. Prediction markets like Kalshi already let traders bet on whether Bitcoin reaches six figures, adding a market-based layer to the forecast.
The next concrete thing to watch is the ARMA bill's progress through the House. If it moves, the bull case gets real. If it stalls, the downside scenario starts looking like the base case.
