JPMorgan kept its $240 price target on SpaceX (SPCX) Monday, a call that implies nearly 80% upside from the stock's $135 close. The bank's rationale isn't about launch vehicles. It's about AI — specifically Grok and the newly acquired Cursor.
The AI Case
JPMorgan's analysts see SpaceX's future through its AI arm, not its rockets. The bank points to Grok, the AI model now trained with data from Cursor, the coding platform SpaceX acquired and closed on August 14. Cursor is generating about $4 billion in annual recurring revenue as of June, with roughly 75% coming from business customers. That data feeds Grok's supplemental training, and the model is improving.
Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, adding $500 billion to SpaceX's market value and landing on what JPMorgan calls the Pareto frontier — the best cost-performance point in its class. The bank expects new models almost every month through December, with Grok 5 due before year-end. There's also a Grok Bot in the works for enterprise workplace tasks. Elon Musk has pledged SpaceX's engineering data for future training runs.
Cursor and the Road Not Taken
Cursor's acquisition isn't just about revenue. It's about the data pipeline. JPMorgan's note highlights how Cursor's usage data feeds directly into Grok's development, giving SpaceX a competitive edge in AI training. The company approached rival coding startup Cognition earlier this month, but Cognition rebuffed the buyout offer. That leaves Cursor as SpaceX's main AI coding asset.
The Price of the Push
The AI bet doesn't come cheap. SpaceX's AI unit lost $1.26 billion last quarter and absorbed 86% of the company's capital spending. That's a heavy burn rate, but JPMorgan sees it as the price of building a model that can rival the best in the field. The bank's $240 target would put SpaceX's valuation over $3 trillion, a level that seems to be based on Grok's growth and the recurring revenue Cursor brings in.
The Unlock and the Real Test
There's a near-term wrinkle. Nearly 370 million shares unlock on September 9-10, potentially swelling the float by about 20%. That could create selling pressure. SPCX traded at $137.85 as of this writing, down from its record June debut. The unlock will be the first real test of how the market weighs SpaceX's AI story against its rocket business and its losses. That's a September date to watch.
