Kioxia shares have lost 65% of their value since hitting an all-time high of ¥112,700 on June 22, 2025. The selloff has erased roughly $245 billion in market capitalization, dragging the stock back to levels not seen since before the company briefly became Japan's most valuable listed firm, overtaking Toyota.
The peak and the plunge
Kioxia listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in December 2024 and shares surged more than 500% in 2025. The rally carried into early 2026, fueled by tight memory supply and insatiable AI demand. At its peak on June 22, the company's market cap briefly topped Toyota's, a milestone that now looks distant. Last month alone, the stock crashed 45% as part of a broader rout in AI-related equities.
Broader chip rout and Chinese competition
The decline isn't isolated to Kioxia. Rivals SK Hynix and Samsung both posted double-digit percentage drops in July 2025 as crowded positioning and fading momentum hit the sector. Adding to the pressure, Chinese NAND flash manufacturers have been increasing capacity, threatening the pricing power that Kioxia and its peers enjoyed during the supply-constrained boom. Analysts say the combination of oversupply fears and profit-taking has hammered the entire memory chip space.
What management is saying
Kioxia management unveiled a dividend plan at its June investor day and said dividends remain a priority. A company spokesperson said the firm continues to weigh share buybacks but has not made a concrete decision. Ikuo Mitsui, fund manager at Aizawa Securities, said a buyback could signal that management views the stock as oversold. SK Kim, analyst at Daiwa Securities, pointed to long-term supply agreements and steady data center demand as factors that should support free cash flow, potentially making a buyback easier to justify.
What investors are watching
Kioxia reports fiscal first-quarter results on Friday. Investors are looking for clarity on the dividend timeline and any update on buyback policy. Despite the steep drop, the stock is still up 269% year-to-date, a reminder of how far it had run. The question now is whether the selloff has gone too far or if more pain lies ahead as Chinese competition intensifies and AI trade enthusiasm cools.
