Brent crude is expected to average $96 a barrel this year, according to projections, as low global inventories and ongoing Middle East tensions keep the market tight. The forecast comes as a prediction market gives a 15% chance that the benchmark will hit a new all-time high by the end of December.
Why the forecast points to $96
Low inventories are a key factor. Stockpiles around the world have been drawn down, leaving less buffer against any supply disruption. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East — a region that pumps about a third of the world's crude — continue to keep traders on edge. Any escalation could quickly tighten the market further.
The $96 average projection reflects these pressures. It would mark a significant jump from recent years, though not a record. The all-time high for Brent remains well above that figure.
A 15% chance of a record
A separate prediction market now gives a 15% probability that Brent crude will reach a new all-time high by December 31. That is a non-trivial chance for an event that would require a major supply shock or a rapid surge in demand. The market is pricing in a tail risk — a low-probability, high-impact outcome.
Prediction markets aggregate the views of traders and speculators, but they are not forecasts. Still, a 15% chance is notable. It suggests that enough participants see a plausible path to a record, even if it is not the base case.
What would it take? A combination of factors: deeper production cuts from OPEC+, a sudden geopolitical crisis, or a faster-than-expected economic recovery that boosts demand. None of these are guaranteed, but they are not impossible either.
The year is still young. The December 31 deadline leaves plenty of time for events to unfold. For now, the market is watching inventories and the Middle East — the same two forces that are pushing the average toward $96.
