Bitcoin is trading near $62,900 entering the weekend, less than 1% above the July 31 intraday low of about $62,426. That low came as Deribit settled roughly $9.6–$9.7 billion in monthly Bitcoin options — one of the largest expiries this year. With the options overhang cleared, the market is now watching whether $62,000 holds as support. A sustained break below that level could open the door to $60,000, where the $60,000 put carries $1.17 billion in open interest.
Options expiry clears the deck
The July 31 expiry removed a major source of uncertainty. The high for the day was $65,266, and that level now serves as the first repair target for bulls. But the immediate action is lower. The $62,000 area has become the line in the sand — if it breaks, the next stop is $60,000. Below that, $58,000 is the next downside target, but only relevant after $60,000 gives way.
Weekend liquidity in focus
Weekend trading means thinner books. Liquidity within 1% of spot across Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, and Bybit will determine how much orders can move price. If aggregate depth drops 15% or more across three major venues, that signals a market-wide liquidity withdrawal. A 20% loss in bids relative to asks would reduce the market's ability to absorb sales near spot. That's the kind of setup that can amplify a break below $62,000 if it happens.
ETF inflows keep flowing
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $233.1 million on July 30, pushing cumulative net inflows to about $51.64 billion. ETF trading is closed on weekends, but CME cryptocurrency derivatives run 24/7. That means any weekend price action will be driven by spot and futures, not institutional ETF flows. The recent inflow streak suggests institutional demand remains solid, but it won't provide a cushion until Monday.
Bullish vs. bearish: the levels that matter
The bearish path requires sustained trading below $62,000, with spot sales leading futures, expanding open interest, and neutral or positive funding. That combination would confirm sellers are in control. The bullish path, on the other hand, needs a reclaim of $65,300 to repair the breakdown from July 31. Until then, the bias leans cautious. The weekend will test whether the $62,000 support holds or cracks under thin liquidity.
