tags. We need to preserve structure. Translate each paragraph.
First paragraph: "Iran has restated its claim of full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil. The move comes amid heightened tensions with the United States and renewed concerns about potential disruptions to global energy flows."
Translation: "Iran telah menyatakan kembali klaim kedaulatannya penuh atas Selat Hormuz, jalur air sempit yang membawa sekitar seperlima minyak dunia. Langkah ini muncul di tengah meningkatnya ketegangan dengan Amerika Serikat dan kekhawatiran baru tentang potensi gangguan terhadap aliran energi global."
Second paragraph: "A prediction market now puts the odds of traffic through the strait returning to normal by August 31 at just 15.5%. That figure reflects deep uncertainty about whether the current standoff will ease or escalate in the coming weeks."
Translation: "Sebuah pasar prediksi kini menempatkan peluang lalu lintas melalui selat tersebut kembali normal pada 31 Agustus hanya sebesar 15,5%. Angka itu mencerminkan ketidakpastian yang mendalam tentang apakah kebuntuan saat ini akan mereda atau meningkat dalam beberapa minggu mendatang."
Third paragraph (h2): "
The Strait of Hormuz: A Geopolitical Flashpoint
"
Translation: "
Selat Hormuz: Titik Rawan Geopolitik
"
Fourth paragraph: "Located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile-wide chokepoint. Tankers carrying crude from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar must pass through it. Any disruption — whether from military confrontation, mining, or political brinkmanship — can send oil prices spiking within hours."
Translation: "Terletak di antara Teluk Persia dan Teluk Oman, Selat Hormuz adalah titik sempit selebar 21 mil. Kapal tanker yang membawa minyak mentah dari Arab Saudi, Irak, Iran, Kuwait, UEA, dan Qatar harus melewatinya. Gangguan apa pun — baik dari konfrontasi militer, penambangan, atau politik tepi jurang — dapat membuat harga minyak melonjak dalam hitungan jam."
Note: "21-mile-wide" -> "selebar 21 mil". "chokepoint" -> "titik sempit" or "titik rawan". "political brinkmanship" -> "politik tepi jurang" (common term). Keep proper names: Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Saudi Arabia, etc.
Fifth paragraph: "Iran has long asserted its right to control the strait under international law, but it has also threatened to close it in response to sanctions or aggression. The latest reaffirmation appears to be a signal that Tehran is not backing down."
Translation: "Iran telah lama menegaskan haknya untuk mengendalikan selat tersebut berdasarkan hukum internasional, tetapi juga telah mengancam akan menutupnya sebagai respons terhadap sanksi atau agresi. Penegasan kembali terbaru ini tampaknya menjadi sinyal bahwa Teheran tidak akan mundur."
Sixth paragraph (h2): "
Market Signals
"
Translation: "
Sinyal Pasar
"
Seventh paragraph: "The 15.5% probability of normalization by August 31 comes from a prediction market that aggregates bets on geopolitical outcomes. That number is low — it suggests traders see a roughly one-in-six chance that the situation will resolve peacefully within two months. The remaining probability is split between continued tensions, partial restrictions, or outright closure."
Translation: "Probabilitas normalisasi sebesar 15,5% pada 31 Agustus berasal dari pasar prediksi yang mengumpulkan taruhan pada hasil geopolitik. Angka itu rendah — menunjukkan bahwa pedagang melihat peluang sekitar satu banding enam bahwa situasi akan terselesaikan secara damai dalam dua bulan. Sisa probabilitas terbagi antara ketegangan yang berlanjut, pembatasan parsial, atau penutupan total."
Eighth paragraph: "Oil markets have already priced in some risk. Brent crude has hovered above $80 a barrel, partly due to the Hormuz uncertainty. If the probability of normalization rises, prices could ease. If it drops further, expect more volatility."
Translation: "Pasar minyak telah memperhitungkan beberapa risiko. Minyak mentah Brent telah bertahan di atas $80 per barel, sebagian karena ketidakpastian Hormuz. Jika probabilitas normalisasi naik, harga bisa melunak. Jika turun lebih jauh, perkirakan volatilitas yang lebih besar."
Ninth paragraph (h2): "
What's at Stake
"
Translation: "
Apa yang Dipertaruhkan
"
Tenth paragraph: "Beyond oil prices, the strait's status affects global shipping insurance rates, naval deployments, and diplomatic relations across the Middle East. The U.S. has increased its naval presence in the region, while Iran has conducted exercises near the waterway."
Translation: "Di luar harga minyak, status selat tersebut mempengaruhi tarif asuransi pengiriman global, penempatan angkatan laut, dan hubungan diplomatik di seluruh Timur Tengah. AS telah meningkatkan kehadiran angkatan lautnya di kawasan itu, sementara Iran telah melakukan latihan di dekat jalur air tersebut."
Eleventh paragraph: "For now, the 18% chance of normalization by August 31 is the best available market-based estimate. It's not a forecast — it's a snapshot of uncertainty. Whether that number moves up or down depends on actions in Tehran, Washington, and the tanker lanes of the Gulf."
Wait, the original says "18% chance" in the last paragraph? Let's check: The original content says: "For now, the 18% chance of normalization by August 31 is the best available market-based estimate." But earlier it said 15.5%. There's an inconsistency. Actually, the original article: first paragraph says 15.5%, then later says "the 18% chance". Possibly a typo? The meta description says 15.5%. I need to follow the original text exactly. The original content has "18% chance" in the last paragraph. I should keep that as is. But the title and meta say 15.5%. I'll translate the last paragraph as written: "18%". However, to be consistent with the article, I'll keep the number as given. But note: the requirement says keep all facts and numbers accurate. So I must preserve the numbers as they appear. So in the last paragraph, it's 18%. I'll translate that.
Translation: "Untuk saat ini, peluang normalisasi sebesar 18% pada 31 Agustus adalah perkiraan berbasis pasar terbaik yang tersedia. Ini bukan ramalan — ini adalah gambaran ketidakpastian. Apakah angka itu naik atau turun tergantung pada tindakan di Teheran, Washington, dan jalur tanker di Teluk."
Now meta description: "Iran reaffirms sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions. A prediction market shows a 15.5% probability of normalization by August 31, signaling ongoing uncertainty for global oil markets."
Translation: "Iran menegaskan kembali kedaulatan atas Selat Hormuz di tengah ketegangan dengan AS. Pasar prediksi menunjukkan probabilitas normalisasi sebesar 15,5% pada 31 Agustus, menandakan ketidakpastian yang berkelanjutan bagi pasar minyak global."
Now assemble JSON. The content should be wrapped in tags. I'll combine all translated HTML parts.
Note: The original content had a
