Why the IMF is sounding the alarm
Iran is a major oil producer, and the disruption of its exports is already tightening global supply. The IMF projects that if the conflict escalates further, oil prices could spike, raising costs for businesses and consumers. That would cut into household spending and corporate profits, dragging down growth in countries that rely on imported energy.
The fund's economists also point to the risk of a prolonged conflict that keeps supply chains under pressure. Even a temporary disruption can ripple through markets, as seen in past Middle East crises.
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