Bitcoin is stuck around $77,000, and the share of supply in profit has fallen to roughly 61%. That's a big shift from the bull-market norm, where the metric typically stays above 75%. The $80,000 level — the cost basis for short-term holders — has turned into a wall that's held since early October last year, and a recent push above it got slapped down at $82,000.
Supply in profit sinks below bull-market norms
The 61% figure marks a crucial change in market dynamics. During previous bull phases, supply in profit often sat above 75%. Bear markets, by contrast, have seen about 45% of supply held at a loss. When Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 earlier this cycle, only 51.1% of coins were in profit — a number that's now crept back up but still far from healthy territory. The implication: far fewer holders are sitting on gains, and the ones who aren't are mostly short-term traders.
The $80,000 wall that won't break
The $80,000 mark isn't just a round number — it's the Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis. That means anyone who bought in the last 155 days is underwater on average. Since early October, every attempt to reclaim $80K has failed. The latest try ran into rejection at $82K. With short-term holders nursing losses, the most likely move is to exit and cut their losses rather than hold through further downside. That selling pressure could keep a lid on any rally.
Short-term holders face a decision
The data suggests the next move depends on whether these underwater holders capitulate or hold. Historically, when supply in profit dips toward 50-55%, it's been a bearish signal. But the current 61% sits in a gray zone — not yet crisis territory, but far from the comfort zone of a bull market. If Bitcoin can't break $80K soon, more short-term holders may throw in the towel, pushing supply in profit even lower. That's the concrete risk in the weeks ahead.
