Arthur Hayes has gone all-in on privacy coins. The former BitMEX CEO said this week he expects NEAR to deliver 20x returns and Zcash 5x over the next year, calling the two tokens the core of his privacy trade. Hayes tied the bet to private value transfer, AI-era sovereignty, and real protocol economics — a shift from his previous macro stance.
Why Hayes flipped his macro view
Hayes changed his outlook after the Iran conflict. He now expects governments to print money for war and AI infrastructure, with liquidity leaking into Bitcoin and selected crypto assets. The timing isn't great for risk assets generally, but Hayes sees the printing press as a tailwind for scarce digital assets that offer privacy.
Zcash: from skeptical to second-biggest bag
Hayes confirmed Zcash is his second largest holding. He bought $1 million worth after a conversation with Naval Ravikant, who argued Monero's ring signatures were weaker than assumed and pointed to a Japanese deanonymization case. Hayes said earlier concerns about Zcash's trusted setup, issuance, and developer subsidy have faded, making it investable now. At press time, Zcash traded at $624.
The larger opportunity, Hayes explained, is moving from shielded ZEC to other assets — like stablecoins — via NEAR Intents. That system enables anonymous transfers across chains, turning Zcash into a gateway rather than just a store of value.
NEAR Intents is doing real volume
NEAR co-founder Illia Polosukhin stated NEAR Intents is approaching $20 billion in lifetime volume and has generated $33 million in fees. NEAR takes a fee from every transaction to buy back the token, and the ecosystem has already halved inflation with potential for further reductions. Hayes noted NEAR benefits from being fully diluted — avoiding the venture capital overhang that weighs on other layer-1 tokens.
The risk that could break the trade
Hayes acknowledged the macro risk: reduced government support for AI capex or a worsening war scenario would alter the setup. If the printing presses slow or conflict escalates beyond what markets can digest, his privacy thesis unravels. For now, he's holding tight.
The next concrete event to watch is whether NEAR Intents crosses the $20 billion milestone in the coming weeks, and whether Zcash's shielded usage ticks up as more users test anonymous cross-chain transfers.
