On-chain signals point to accumulation
The report's authors describe a market moving from correction into accumulation. Coins transacted within three months are at multi-year lows, while dormant supply is climbing. That pattern, paired with the sliding equity correlation, suggests holders are sitting on their positions rather than chasing risk-on flows. Bitcoin has spent much of 2026 trading in a range that frustrates both bulls and bears, but the on-chain data leans toward a buildup rather than a blow-off.
" Translation: "Isyarat on-chain menunjukkan pengumpulan
Penulis laporan menggambarkan pasaran yang bergerak dari pembetulan ke pengumpulan. Syiling yang ditransaksikan dalam tempoh tiga bulan berada pada paras terendah pelbagai tahun, manakala bekalan yang tidak aktif semakin meningkat. Corak itu, digabungkan dengan korelasi ekuiti yang menurun, menunjukkan pemegang duduk di atas kedudukan mereka daripada mengejar aliran berisiko. Bitcoin telah menghabiskan sebahagian besar tahun 2026 berdagang dalam julat yang mengecewakan kedua-dua pelabur menaik dan menurun, tetapi data on-chain cenderung ke arah pembentukan daripada pelepasan.
" Note: "on-chain" is a tech term, keep as "on-chain" or "rantai" but usually "on-chain" is used in Malay crypto context. "Accumulation" as "pengumpulan". "Bulls and bears" as "pelabur menaik dan menurun" or "bull dan bear" - I'll use "pelabur menaik dan menurun" for clarity. "Blow-off" as "pelepasan" (or "letupan" but "blow-off top" is a term, here "blow-off" likely means a sudden sell-off, so "pelepasan" is okay). Third paragraph: "Fed faces sticky inflation, energy pressure
The Fed's July Monetary Policy Report showed PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4% over the twelve months through May. The funds rate has sat at 3.50%-3.75% since January. New York Fed President John Williams tied elevated inflation to tariffs, Middle East-driven energy and commodity costs, and demand for goods and electricity from technology investment. June's Summary of Economic Projections already raised the 2026 median PCE forecast to 3.6% and the year-end funds-rate median to 3.8% — up from 3.4% in March.
The timing isn't great for a Bitcoin rally. If the Fed signals another hold or a hawkish lean, the macro headwind could pull crypto lower. But the decoupling data suggests Bitcoin may react differently than it did in 2025.
" Translation: "Fed berdepan inflasi melekit, tekanan tenaga
Laporan Dasar Monetari Julai Fed menunjukkan inflasi PCE pada 4.1% dan PCE teras pada 3.4% sepanjang dua belas bulan hingga Mei. Kadar dana telah berada pada 3.50%-3.75% sejak Januari. Presiden Fed New York John Williams mengaitkan inflasi yang tinggi dengan tarif, kos tenaga dan komoditi yang didorong oleh Timur Tengah, serta permintaan untuk barangan dan elektrik daripada pelaburan teknologi. Ringkasan Unjuran Ekonomi Jun telah menaikkan ramalan median PCE 2026 kepada 3.6% dan median kadar dana akhir tahun kepada 3.8% — meningkat daripada 3.4% pada Mac.
Masa ini tidak sesuai untuk kenaikan Bitcoin. Jika Fed memberi isyarat untuk menahan lagi atau kecenderungan hawkish, angin buruk makro boleh menarik kripto lebih rendah. Tetapi data perpisahan menunjukkan Bitcoin mungkin bertindak balas secara berbeza daripada yang dilakukannya pada 2025.
" Note: "sticky inflation" as "inflasi melekit". "Hawkish lean" as "kecenderungan hawkish". "Macro headwind" as "angin buruk makro". Fourth paragraph: "Oil prices split the bull and bear case for Bitcoin
The report outlines two scenarios. In the bull case, a selloff in AI stocks driven by valuation concerns would push bond yields down and strengthen metals, which would lift Bitcoin. In the bear case, an AI selloff triggered by inflation and rising energy costs would drive yields higher, dragging Bitcoin down along with metals. Oil prices are the key factor determining which path plays out. The US Energy Information Administration's July base case sees Brent crude averaging $74 a barrel in the third quarter.
Alphabet this week raised its 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to $195-205 billion from $180-190 billion and reported its first negative free-cash-flow quarter — minus $5.9 billion. The four largest US hyperscalers are on pace to spend more on capex than free cash flow by 2027 if current trends hold. Big Tech is set to pump over $700 billion into AI infrastructure this year, and Morgan Stanley projects that figure will top $1 trillion in 2027. Microsoft and Meta report earnings July 29; Amazon follows July 30.
Those numbers matter for Bitcoin because the AI capex cycle is the same force competing for capital and driving electricity demand. How the market reads the earnings — as a sign of overinvestment or a necessary bet — will ripple into yields, metals, and eventually crypto.
" Translation: "Harga minyak memisahkan kes menaik dan menurun untuk Bitcoin
Laporan itu menggariskan dua senario. Dalam kes menaik, penjualan saham AI yang didorong oleh kebimbangan penilaian akan menekan hasil bon dan mengukuhkan logam, yang akan menaikkan Bitcoin. Dalam kes menurun, penjualan AI yang dicetuskan oleh inflasi dan kenaikan kos tenaga akan mendorong hasil lebih tinggi, menarik Bitcoin turun bersama logam. Harga minyak adalah faktor utama yang menentukan laluan mana yang berlaku. Kes asas Julai Pentadbiran Maklumat Tenaga AS melihat minyak mentah Brent purata $74 setong pada suku ketiga.
Alphabet minggu ini menaikkan panduan perbelanjaan modal 2026 kepada $195-205 bilion daripada $180-190 bilion dan melaporkan suku pertama aliran tunai bebas negatif — tolak $5.9 bilion. Empat
