Institutional buyers are absorbing roughly 577% of Bitcoin's daily mined supply, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. Bitcoin has gained 12% since his previous update on institutional flows. Edwards said that historically, when demand exceeds daily supply by that margin, Bitcoin saw double-digit returns within a couple of weeks — a comparable move could put the asset near $96,000.
Why the numbers matter
The 577% figure means institutions are buying nearly six times the amount of Bitcoin being mined each day. Edwards pointed out that past instances of such extreme institutional demand preceded sharp price rallies. Bitcoin traded at $81,429 at press time on May 12, leaving room for roughly an 18% gain to hit the $96,000 target if history repeats. The metric comes from Capriole's proprietary data, which tracks flows from ETF filings, custody data, and OTC desk activity.
Model signals turn bullish
Capriole's internal models have flipped in favor of long positions. Trend King, the firm's longest-running live trading strategy, went long around $71,000. It's primarily technical but incorporates selected on-chain inputs. The Macro Index, a fundamentals-only model tracking over 200 on-chain and macro data points, shifted into 'recovery' mode. Edwards described that as a broader regime shift. Both models are now risk-on, backing the current breakout.
Derivatives and on-chain picture
The Bitcoin Perps Heat indicator flashed an 'extremely bullish long term signal' after excessive shorting. Edwards noted that market positioning had reset before the breakout. Complete capitulation on derivatives markets occurred in March and April, flushing out leverage. Meanwhile, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) spent significant time below 1 — historically a 'great Bitcoin opportunity' zone — and has now closed back above 1, signaling a return of positive momentum.
Equity markets and macro backdrop
Edwards also flagged Bitcoin's outperformance since the Iran war started, showing consistent strength across technical and fundamental data. Capriole's 'quiet strong market' strategy remains risk-on, with collapsing credit spreads and a favorable VIX regime. The S&P 500 printed a fresh all-time high, with Edwards identifying 7,000 as a key weekly level. But he cautioned about weakness in the advance-decline line, high oil prices tied to the Iran war, and the gold-to-stock ratio as longer-term equity risks — though not a confirmed bearish turn.
For now, Capriole's models are long, and the data points to a market that has already absorbed a lot of selling. The next move — if it mirrors history — could push Bitcoin toward $96,000. Analysts will be watching whether institutional demand holds at these levels.
